Third Time a Charm? Maybe Not!

"The divorce rate in America is 41 percent for a first marriage, 60 percent for a second marriage, and 73 percent for a third marriage".
(From an article in Enrichment Journal)

The often-cited statistic that fifty percent of marriages end in divorce is somewhat misleading. It's actually lower than fifty percent for first marriages, and considerably higher for every marriage after that.

In a way, these percentages remind me of bar exam pass rates. A particular state may have, on average, an overall pass rate of 80 percent, but on closer analysis the pass rate might be 90 percent for first-time takers (i.e., people who have just graduated from law school), 75 percent for second-time takers, 60 percent for third-time takers, and as low as 5 percent for the relatively few people who have previously failed it ten times or more.

Although getting married a second or third time is obviously different from taking a bar exam multiple times, there are at least two common elements that might explain the rising failure rates: inadequate preparation and psychological pressures. Most people taking the bar exam for the first time devote several months of their lives to studying for it, on essentially a full-time basis, often beginning even prior to law school graduation. A person who fails the exam the first time not only has to figure out what he did wrong, but also has to find the time to keep studying. Because the bar exam is given only twice a year, the typical second or third-time taker has to get some kind of job to support himself until he passes, which usually means less time to study. In addition, once a person has failed, he starts losing confidence in himself. A vicious cycle is created, with future failures an ever-more-likely result.

I think something similar happens after divorce. Not every divorced person gets remarried, but a large percentage of those who do will settle for the first person who comes into their life afterward. This is particularly true of men---men often being notoriously incapable of living on their own---but it happens with women, too.

At a book-signing event just last night, I spoke with a woman who has been married four times. From what she told me about her current marriage, it seems only a matter of time before she will have been divorced four times, as well. Although she was good-looking, in-shape, articulate, intelligent, and fun, I detected a certain lack of confidence in her. Because marriage itself is seemingly part of her comfort zone, she has probably rushed into new marriages without having taken the time to figure out what went wrong the last time. She has probably chosen husbands not so much because they're desirable, but because they're simply available.

My guess is that she'll be married a fifth time someday, but I sincerely hope that she'll be choosier next time. To do that, though, she'll have to look hard inside herself and decide once and for all what she wants out of marriage and out of life. Because she's only about 45, she should have plenty of time to enjoy the kind of life that she deserves, what I call in my book an "authentic" life.

Statistics, of course, can't predict what will actually happen in any individual case. The person who takes the bar exam for the fifteenth time may pass it with flying colors. The person who gets married a seventh time may find her true love and live happily ever after. But although long odds don't rule out a win, they should give you pause before you place a bet. A divorce rate of 73 percent or higher calls out for caution, reflection, and a high degree of self-awareness.